Saturday, September 20, 2014

Economics in Elder Scrolls Online

    Despite initially being pretty skeptical... I think that the economic system in Elder Scrolls Online is actually a step in the right direction for a few reasons.  While there are a few tweaks I would make I think its an overall great system.  Here I'll outline some of the benefits and weaknesses I believe exist.

Market Dominance


    When markets are implemented as these kinds of homogeneous services by some obscure unplayable race (goblins!) in an MMO it gives an unrealistic amount of data to participants, and opens the door for people with enough time on their hands to unnaturally dominate markets.  So lets say I'm level 4 and I want to sell some Copper ore in World of Warcraft.  If I open up the Auction House I see every other market participant in the entire server.  If I want to participate and sell in this market I'm essentially restricted in what I can ask for my Copper based on the lowest price point and the demand.  This is what I call "flat-line" pricing.  The reason price "flat-lining" is bad is that its a consequence of resources not actually being scarce in an online game.  When resources aren't truly scarce they have almost no value.  Green recipes in ESO are actually under this type of pressure now because they drop so often.

Market Clearing and Artificial Scarcity


    Another problem with the size of markets and the problem of flat-lining is that at the lowest price point on the market essentially never clears.  Meaning that the demand isn't sufficient to consume the amount of goods on the market at the lowest possible price point.  This is a product of artificial scarcity.  The only way to clear this type of market is to implement "liquidation events" like the old Ahn'Qiraj gate opening event in World of Warcraft.  Commodities of all types were needed for the server-wide effort, and price flat-lining was eliminated for a time.  If a "global economy" exists in a game there need to be alternative ways of consuming resources to offset the artificial scarcity.

Prevent "Flat-Lining", Promote Perpetual Price Discovery


    In Elder Scrolls Online (ESO) if I want to sell some low level commodities, the limitation on the number of market participants prevents the price point from flat-lining.  While some equilibrium does exist over the spread of a players' allowed five guild membership, the fact that not every player is a member of the same five guilds and that those five guilds are in constant membership flux allows for price fluctuation.  This quest of price-discovery over the span of multiple guilds is more realistic and satisfying.  In reality economics is often heavily influenced by things that don't have an analog in video games, like geopolitics and the resulting effect on the economic systems of countries with scarce resources.

    An individual in ESO would have to go to great effort to dominate and flat-line a market, creating alts and colluding with other players who were members of different guilds.  The power of an individual participant in the global market is limited.  Even if they were to go through all this trouble it would be difficult to measure the impact.

"Flat-Lining" vs Equilibrium.

    Flat-lining should not be confused with the concept of market equilibrium, although the end result of both is price stability.  Price flat-lining is the result of overwhelming supply brought about by artificial scarcity, and no mechanic in place to soak up that excess supply.  While some demand does exist for goods that are flat-lined, it doesn't come anywhere near "enough."  Equilibrium on the other hand would exist in the market where demand meets supply, obviously.  Prices reach a stable level and fluctuate based on variables in the market (i.e., people farming less, drop rates, shifts in demand).  With flat-lining, although prices are bottomed out, many of the goods on the market remain on the market and never clear (sell).  Eventually these are re-listed (at a loss) or sold to a vendor (for no profit).  It's a delicate balance for sure.

vs. Guild Wars 2


    The more I participate in the ESO market the less I believe that Guild Wars 2 had the best system.  Essentially the two are polar opposites.  The economic system in GW2 was essentially like a stock market with gw2spidey being your advanced statistical software package for analyzing and crushing the market.  You could literally just sit at the market and make money without actually doing anything productive in GW2.  While it was great to never have to farm for gold... it didn't really feel like you were playing in a primitive "I use a dagger to stab things" world.

The Bad Stuff


    Obviously right now they have a few bugs to work out such as the mail delivery system, and the poor functionality of the guild store interface... but overall I think its the best MMO economic system I've participated in ever.

    The problem with "Trading Guilds" (guilds formed for the sole purpose of being composed of market participants) is that they have guild leadership structures similar to that of traditional guilds focused on PvE and PvP progress.  You can grant and revoke rights to players and lock down guild resources from players... such as access to the guild bank.

    In theory the participation and promoting of your trading guild is supposed to give you the advantage of having a great position for the Guild Trader somewhere in the world where participants outside the guild can buy things.  This grants you the ability to sell things to a wider audience and ultimately benefit you.  However the jockeying for position of the Guild Trader between different Trading Guilds opens the door for corruption of the guild leadership.

    Fund raising events are common in some of the best trading guilds that I'm currently a member of.  There is no open accounting of where the money goes, and what the guild leadership uses it for.  This leaves the initiate, or the average market participant who isn't included in the "inner circle" of a trading guild a little skeptical and cynical about where his donations are going.  The only thing you can really hope for is that the gold spent for the purpose of a broader market is being used faithfully and truthfully by the guild leadership.  Problem is outside the inner circle, the 450+ people who are essentially just randoms don't get this reassurance.

    But if you're like me, with a healthy distrust of government and government-esque institutions like Trading Guilds... you would like better transparency.  The guild bank does show when funds are withdrawn and when they are deposited etc... but if the guild leader is not disclosing how much it costs the guild weekly to maintain its Guild Trader location, and is using those "excess funds" to benefit the inner circle... this is nothing more than cronyism that hurts the community.  It boils down to a structure that facilitates exploitation of the masses using the carrot-on-a-stick of ensuring your Guild Trader is in a good spot.

    Here are the solutions that would solve this.

Eliminate the guild bank for Trading Guilds


    There is no reason to have it if it is going to be locked down from the majority of the guild anyway, and if its opened up it allows trolls who would steal its contents the ability to damage a larger pool of people.  The entire point of a Trading Guilds is not PvE or PvP but trading.  PvP and PvE guilds of friends use guild banks to pool resources that can later be used for the progress of the guild.  No such goal exists for Trading Guilds outside the inner circle.

Redistribute Excess Funds Weekly


    Excess Funds that were raised throughout the week intended to go toward the bidding of Guild Trader position should be redistributed automatically after the guilds Guild Trader spot is awarded.  Since the Guild Bank already tracks who deposits gold and the amount they deposit, it should be very easy to redistribute all excess gold to players (proportionally) who deposited gold and contributed during that week.  Players who do not contribute would not receive excess funds.

Eliminate Ranks


    There should be no need for any administrative activities in a Trading Guild that would require guild leaders and officers.  The automatic machinations of a Trading Guild should be fully automated.

Differentiate between Trading Guilds and Other Guilds


     Trading guilds have a very narrow purpose, and shouldn't function the same as traditional guilds.  The advantage of having a trading guild has already been explained as broadening your potential customer base when you sell things on a market.  Traditional guilds focused on PvE and PvP advancement should be limited to ~50 players (maybe 100?) and have features like the guild bank unlocked.  The explicit difference between these two guilds as a new recruit is that you're granting your sanction to the guild leadership to do what needs to be done for progress.  As a new recruit in a trading guild you've got very little opportunity to break into the inner circle (often composed of a group of friends).

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Back to LoL!

     Finally finished with a lot of shit I had to do for work, back to League of Legends after a long four month break.  Sucks taking a break from this game because the you definitely fall behind fast when you don't have daily practice.

     I reskinned my twitch.tv page and dumped all of the guild wars 2 garbage.  I'll be streaming.

     http://www.twitch.tv/lucr3tius

Sunday, December 9, 2012

gw2spidy API in Google Docs on Steroids

  Guild Wars 2 is pretty much dead to me, but I find gw2spidy's API fascinating and fun to play with.  I'm not a professional programmer by trade but I find it interesting to play around with this kind of stuff.  Before I was pulling the data into Excel and manipulating it using the article linked below written by Marthisdil.


  Granted, I took it way farther than Marthisdil did in his article, but all the basics for doing it yourself are in there.  I read a similar simple little how-to by Valaadus where he was doing the same thing in Google docs with JSON and a little Javascript.


  This is particularly interesting to me because its web based and uses google doc's API which is by itself incredible.  So this is what I've created (sample).  Instead of using the CSV calls I used in my previous implimentation I'm using json calls.  Below is an example of a json call, clicking this will just throw up some junk on the screen.  Below that is what the call looks like in a little bit more understandable format.



  The example written up by Valaadus was parsing the results of a json request for min_sale_unit_price and formatting it a little bit with some javascript.  I wanted to see if I could return an entire row of values using only the item ID, and then do some more in depth calculations.  I modified the script as shown below.


  Lines 5-8 are where the data is fetched, and 10-14 are where I grab each of the individual items I want out of the string returned in the json call (first graphic).  Usually you can't modify the contents of cells arbitrarily in functions, but if you format it like I've done they "spill over" into cells to the right.  You can view my sheet below.


  Column B is the only column that calls the function =getItemInfo() and its fed column A for the itemID. Columns B, C, D, E, and F are populated with that function call because of the way the return statement is formatted.  Columns G-P are normal excel formulas.  I'm calculating projected earnings, total investment required, and the return on that investment (i.e., how fast your gold will grow by flipping this item).


  Gemstones and Jewels were always a pretty good market for me, as long as you didn't dive very deep.  Using the sheet you can simply refresh the page and sort by ROI, or the Earning column to see what to buy and sell.

  To keep things simple I left all units of measure in copper.  Really you only need to know that more profit is better anyway... so the units don't matter much.  It's all simple math anyway */ 100.  The big challenge with doing this in Google documents is that their API limits the amount of function calls you can make in a given time, so you've got to write the script to pull more data per query, and use some javascript to dump the data in the sheet with an array.  Really gw2spidy's API will have to mature a little so you can get better defined querying before this becomes useful.

Enjoy!

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Playing with the gw2spidy API

     The gw2spidy API is pretty great.  I was working with pulling some data into Excel and building custom reports, calculating Return on Investment, Net Profit (after taxes and fees) to see how effective it would be as a tool on the trading post.  Pretty soon this could be something you could do autopilot.

     For example:  http://snipurl.com/25i2r8i
     This link will give you every level 80 rare weapon with "Berserker's" in the name.  There is a guide on the github page that will guide you through how to import this into Excel.  Once imported, I created a few columns for calculating what I was interested in to see which items would be the best to try and trade.  It looked like this (I have everything on my sheet, not just Berserkers's weapons).


     I could set the spreadsheet up to auto-update, but I prefer not to since a snapshot in time is really sufficient to get the data I want.  I basically then just go from top to bottom placing buy orders on each item until I'm out of money.  My thinking is that this will maximize my potential profit, instead of just randomly buying whatever items I find, or having to look through each window to check the margin and do some quick calculations in my head.

     I have similar sheets set up for the following:

  • Gemstones and Jewels
  • Level 80 Masterwork Gear (greens)
  • Common Crafting Materials (cloth, leather, ore, wood)
  • Fine Crafting Materials (blood, fangs, claws, etc...)
     Next I'll be working a sheet with 80 Rare Gear, then I don't know.  It's definitely a useful tool I think, for people who are willing to dig a little deeper.  Because I'm such a swell fucking guy here are all the API calls I created for my spreadsheet.

Common Crafting Components
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=24272,24273,24274,24275,24276,24277,24278,24279,24280,24281,24282,24283,24284,24285,24286,24287,24288,24289,24290,24291,24292,24293,24294,24295,24296,24297,24298,24299,24300,24341,24342,24343,24344,24345,24346,24347,24348,24349,24350,24351,24352,24353,24354,24355,24356,24357,24358,24363

Fine Crafting Components
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=19701,19700,19699,19702,19698,19703,19697,19679,19680,19681,19682,19683,19684,19685,19686,19687,19688,19718,19739,19741,19743,19745,19748,19720,19740,19742,19744,19746,19747,19719,19728,19729,19730,19731,19732,19733,19734,19735,19736,19737,19738,19722,19723,19724,19725,19726,19727,19709,19710,19711,19712,19713,19714

Gemstones and Jewels
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=24889,24876,24875,24874,24873,24872,24871,24870,24535,24534,24527,24526,24522,24521,24520,24519,24516,24515,24512,24511,24510,24509,24508,24507,24506,24504,24503,24501,24500,24475,24474,24473,24472,24471,24470,24469,24468,24467,24466,24465,24464

80 Masterwork Gear
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13397,13444,13481,13403,13445,13487,13394,13447,13478,10496,10531,10566,10601,10643,10671

80 Rare Weapons - Berserkers
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=25923,25944,28530,28553,26352,26370,27278,27300,27588,27610,27903,27924,13892,13927,13976,14011,14422,14472,14514,14563,14598,14647,14682,15265,15307,15349,15391,15426,15468,15510,15552,26114,26125,26963,26986,28216,28238,26649,26672,26818,26839,26488,26511,28389,28409,28780,28791,28075,28095,27761,27781,27446,27467,28703,28723,27131,27153

80 Rare Weapons - Carrion
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13889,13924,13973,14008,14428,14469,14511,14560,14595,14644,14679,15262,15304,15346,15388,15423,15465,15507,15549,32946,32950,32954,32958,32962,32966,32970,32974,32978,32982,32986,32990,32994,32998,33002,33006,33010,33014,33018,34809,34813,34817,34821,34825,34829,34833,34837,34841,34845,34849,34853,34857,34861,34865,34869,34873,34877,34881

80 Rare Weapons - Cleric
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13890,13925,13974,14009,14420,14470,14512,14561,14596,14645,14680,15263,15305,15347,15389,15424,15466,15508,15550,25941,25950,26122,26131,26367,26376,26504,26522,26665,26684,26834,26846,26979,26998,27147,27160,27293,27311,27462,27474,27605,27622,27777,27787,27919,27937,28091,28101,28233,28251,28405,28415,28546,28565,28718,28729,28788,28797

80 Rare Weapons - Explorer
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13891,13926,13975,14010,14421,14471,14513,14562,14597,14646,14681,15264,15306,15348,15390,15425,15467,15509,15551

80 Rare Weapons - Knights
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13894,13929,13978,14013,14437,14474,14516,14565,14600,14649,14684,15267,15309,15351,15393,15428,15470,15512,15554

80 Rare Weapons - Rampager
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13893,13928,13977,14012,14423,14473,14515,14564,14599,14648,14683,15266,15308,15350,15392,15427,15469,15511,15553,25930,25947,26118,26128,26361,26373,26496,26516,26657,26677,26826,26843,26972,26991,27140,27157,27285,27305,27454,27471,27597,27617,27768,27784,27911,27931,28083,28098,28224,28245,28397,28412,28538,28558,28710,28726,28784,28794

80 Rare Weapons - Shaman
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=24995,25035,25075,25115,25155,25195,25235,25275,25315,25355,25395,25435,25475,25515,25555,25595,25635,25675,25715

80 Rare Weapons - Traveler
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=33269,33273,33277,33281,33285,33289,33293,33297,33301,33305,33309,33313,33317,33321,33325,33329,33333,33337,33341,34049,34053,34057,34061,34065,34069,34073,34077,34081,34085,34089,34093,34097,34101,34105,34109,34113,34117,34121

80 Rare Weapons - Valkyrie
http://www.gw2spidy.com/api/v0.9/csv/items/all/1?filter_ids=13895,13930,13979,14014,14439,14475,14517,14566,14601,14650,14685,15268,15310,15352,15394,15429,15471,15513,15555

You can pull these into Excel and do whatever you want!

Friday, November 2, 2012

Guild Wars 2 is Bleeding Out

     There will be no more Orichalcum map updates.  Guild Wars 2 is bleeding out and I'm going to continue transferring to whatever the most populous servers are until I decide to quit the game, which will undoubtedly be very soon.  I've already had Steam fired up, and League of Legends patching, looking for a new game (looking forward to the new Hitman).

     Guild Wars 2 is likely the last MMO I'll ever play.  I feel like MMOs are a genre that is going to die because companies no longer make the time investment feel like it pays off.  They get bogged down in the details of how they're going to milk every last penny out of you through micro-transactions and they forget that they've got to give you something to look forward to to continue playing.   I don't mind spending money but Its really all simple economics.  I expect that for the consumption of entertainment my 1st dollar and my 500th dollar should yield the same utility, if they're encouraging me to spend that 500th dollar.  I didn't spend a fortune on Guild Wars 2, but I probably spent more than most. (maybe $150? I didn't really keep track.)

     What is the build-up in Guild Wars 2?  What is the objective?  Why am I farming?  What good are achievement points?  What am I supposed to be looking forward to?  I feel like this game is an "asian grinder" MMO in disguise.  Grinding isn't a big deal.  I'll farm and grind all day if there is a point... but in asian grinder MMOs the point is the grind... which isn't fun.  In Guild Wars 2 I see no point in continuing... which leaves nothing but the grind.

     None of the issues I have with the game have been addressed, and there has been nothing from Arena Net communicating a direction.  In fact in today's patch, instead of fixing broken class mechanics in WvW they remove orbs from the game completely.  I can't help but be reminded of when Warhammer Online removed Fortresses from the game because they couldn't keep their terrible game engine alive when tons of players actually laid siege to it.  A-net could at least tell us what they're working on and communicate a vision.

     Whatever I'm over it.  Back to fun games.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Henge Of Denravi October 28th Node Locations

Watch them patch as soon as I hit publish.

Only found 4 Orichalcum in Malchor's Leap this time, looked for about an hour.  If anyone knows where it is shoot me a whisper in game.




Appreciate Jerardo once again for helping me with the locations.

Update: big thanks to Eve hooking me up with the last node location.

.
And here is the update map!



Friday, October 26, 2012

Henge Of Denravi October 26th Node Locations

Holy Shit relax on the updates A-net!

(Update: As soon as I published this they patched.  Fuck you Anet.)